Meteorologist Justin Perry’s Final Call

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…First Call largely unchanged except for critical region right around Boston, within 15-20 miles of the coast; models have warmed this region, except for the Euro which keeps Boston-north shore mostly snow…

Snowfall: Light snow will commence early Wednesday and slowly build in intensity through the afternoon. Periods of heavy snow are likely Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Regarding rain/snow line…based on a computer model consensus…the rain/snow line will initially set up along rte 128/95…before sliding southeast late Wednesday night. As the storm continues to deepen in Massachusetts Bay during the early morning hours of Thursday most areas, including the Cape, will have switched over to snow. Areas that stay all snow up through Central New England, 12-18 inches of snow can be expected, with isolated reports to near 24″ The Boston area and North Shore may initially start as a rain, or rain/snow mix, will eventually flip to all snow…hence the 3-6″ range for these areas.

Wind: Sustained winds of 30-45mph with gusts to 55mph are likely across most of the region. Due to the damage incurred with our last major storm…it is likely that significant wind damage will occur again. Another tree and power line assault…especially in regions that combine heavy/wet snow with strong wind gusts…this should be for areas within 15-20 miles of the coast.

Coastal Flooding: Wave and surge values are more “traditional” for this Nor’easter…but when compounded on top of the prolonged coastal assault that has continued since the development of our last major storm…the coastline is in no shape to bare another hit. Significant erosion has continued in the wake of our major storm from Friday…so typically “moderate” impacts will elevate to severe impact in typically prone locations. 3PM Wednesday afternoon and 4AM Thursday morning are the two tide cycles to be most concerned about.

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